This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Brazil. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will try to receive my 3rd seat this week to maximum it if I can. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $30k decoration, then I will likely take a few shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of drama into money games.
With that said, let us get to a few plays I like this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is the cash game play on for me . On the gambling line he is currently -1100 and he’s -206 to win ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the board, the sole real issue is being able to afford him. For cash games, I can for sure fit him in. For GPPs it will be more difficult to have 6 wins paying up for his huge salary, but I enjoy him there as well. I just will not make it a priority to get him into these championship lineups, but cash I need that -1100 in my team for a secure win.
GPP play of the week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I like to target. My preferred drama is Spann however Little Nog is in play as well. The best thing for FDGTD is -280 and that I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it could be 1st round as well. I believe he can compete with the 9k fighters and that he could be a man that kicks off them the 1st location lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann does not have a fantastic chin , so I could see Nog winning through KO. I really don’t think that’s probably, so that I will not be thick on him, but he will make my participant pool. Spann is a man I believe is in play in most formats and I will try to be overweight on him. It is more of a grin on Little Nog at this time, but I really don’t see this battle going all 3-rounds and that I like Spann to get the win.
Underdog play of this week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He is my preferred play in this fight and his past scores pretty much make him a guy you can not fade if you are MMEing. I really don’t see him having the ceiling he did in his previous fights vs Aldo, but these numbers are hard to ignore. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From latest fight to his introduction, these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That’s pretty wonderful. I believe he has a good prospect of upsetting the legend and possibly getting an end for another score. I don’t think Aldo is a fantastic matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling however at $7.8k we do not require that many points. I think IF he wins, he readily pays off that salary.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There is no way I’m paying 8.9k for Carolina. She is the fade of the week and if it burns me then it burns me. I really don’t see that being true though even if she wins. I expect this struggle to keep standing and that I don’t watch her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I really don’t believe she gets that complete so even if she wins I believe she scores nearer to 75 DK points and in her wages that won’t wind up on the perfect lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I won’t receive any exposure to Carolina.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link too. I’m 76-45 to get +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)