This weekend we’ve got the largest contest we have ever seen for DraftKings MMA. We’ve got a $10 entrance contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of the to 1st place. I never believed we’d see a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but that I was incorrect and I can’t wait to chase it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings simply made it bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so we can observe a range of ties for this 1st place prize, so strive to be different with your lineups somewhere, or leave salary on the dining table to differ in that way. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this weekend Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” play on the card with a fantastic margin in his -900 betting line. I enjoy plugging in these high odds guys in money so I can lock a triumph in there and fret about locating 3 other wins out of my 5 additional areas. We usually only want 4 wins in money games to win against the money line, so that is what I take for in these 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been very impressive in his UFC run and he has overcome some fairly big names. On paper, this is one of the simplest matches yet. In addition, he has big time upside down with his finishing potential. He’s got an ITD lineup of -270, therefore that I think we could have 100+ points within this win. He’s a fantastic play in all formats, however he will be chalky in tournaments, so that is why he’s my cash play of this week instead.
GPP drama of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to aim in GPPs because it just takes 1 shot with a lot of those men. I believe this is a great matchup for Volkov and he’s only priced at $8.7k weekly. If he can find a 1st round KO at the price, he will probably be on the winning LU. Same is true for Lewis, so he is a solid GPP play as well. But, my pick to win is going to be Volkov and that I enjoy his price. I think a few men priced above him this week will be much higher owned, so we could find a heavyweight favored at lower ownership here. Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -190, therefore this is a good GPP struggle to aim over all. If you enjoy the Dark Beast to get the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw in your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of this week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here really is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I love searching for line worth like that and that alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has the better odds to finish this battle ITD, so that’s another plus with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games also since Laflare isn’t likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we can afford a reduction from Martin and just take the points he can rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of the week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win . But he’s going to need to get a end to repay his $8.6k price tag. Sergio will not be heading for any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike a high enough speed for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio will be the better fighter around the toes, but when he doesn’t get an end then he likely only scores 60-70 points at a win. Those low scores do not cut it at $8.6k. There are just better plays points per dollar and people are the guys I will be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you’re earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 on this link below: