BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 4 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

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This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Kansas on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to pursuing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy and $25k belongs to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will attempt to get my 2nd chair this week if possible. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will probably have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a couple plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Yana Kunitskaya — $8,900
There really are no money game locks this week for me personally but I moved with Yana since I fully expect this battle to go all 3 rounds so I like the floor she brings to the table. In addition, I believe she wins the battle and I think she is going to be the fighter heading for takedowns. I don’t understand how large her ceiling is in cash games it does not really matter a lot because we don’t have to hit 1st place in a double-up. I’d expect about 10x from Yana in a decision win and I will take that day in my cash games.
GPP drama of the week — Louis Smolka — $8,300
Smolka struggles often score highly because there are a great deal of scrambles and all the grappling improvements really accumulate. I anticipate this to be a really fun fight, but it ought to be Smolka that’s the one going for the takedowns. I’m always trying to find no less than 10x in my fighters and at $8.3k I would be amazed if Smolka did not get that with a win. The lowest he’s ever scored in a win is 99 DK points and he’s even scored 162 vs Nguyen and he has a 61-point loss to Elliott that’s more DK points than Schnell’s triumph over Beltran. I adore Smolka as a GPP drama here and when he wins I’d expect near 100 DK points.
Play of the week — Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos — $8,000
To get a fight that I expect to remain standing, I’ve quite a bit of interest in this struggle. I think it’s going to be an action-packed struggle and I think somebody gets knocked out. This is also the mid-range fight of the week, so I think a KO from either guy would have a fantastic opportunity to set them on the perfect lineup. I enjoy it even more because I’m picking the underdog to get the knockout and I expect Millender to function as higher owned fighter. I’ll have this struggle in over half of my lineups, but I will most likely have at least twice the ownership on dos Santos over Millender. I believe it is a better GPP struggle than it is for cash games, but I think dos Santos is currently in play for cash since he is an underdog and I have him winning. I don’t feel confident in several underdogs this week, but I’ll have a good amount of exposure to dos Santos.
Fade of this week — Anthony Rocco Martin ($9,200)
At $9.2K. Martin will require a finish at the wages and that I really don’t see that occurring. When he wins a definite 30-27 decision, then he probably scores mid 70’s and in his price tag which will not win anybody a GPP. I don’t believe he goes for takedowns in this matchup and I believe he utilizes his wrestling to help keep the fight standing. Even if he can move for takedowns then I do not see him submitting Moraes. So, it has to be a KO out of him to cover off that wages and I am not willing to take this risk with my money. That is why he’s my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 61-37 for +209.69 (+$20,969) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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