Pie in the Sky Win Rates
Since NFL gambling has exploded, so has the tout business. A tout is someone who gets paid to help a bettor make money gambling the NFL. Some are valid handicappers. An overwhelming majority are not.
The first means to protect yourself from one who isn’t would be to rule out anyone who claims to acquire 75 or 80 percent against the point spread. Just remember this: anybody who reasonably predicted to win 80 of the next 100 stakes could turn $1,000 to $15 billion by proper proportional betting–all in one season!
A realistic long-term win percentage for a proficient handicapper will be in the 55–60 percent range. I know of no service that has done better than roughly 60 percent above a variety of seasons. And those that consistently reach 60 percent are very few.
The following warning sign of a rip-off tout is multiple providers within a single service. Touts create numerous providers in order that they can always truthfully claim to have won. By way of instance, a tout may function an early-week newsletter giving selections on each game together with a weekend telephone service giving choices based on the”latest inside info.” Then the tout will change sides on a match due to”new” information. In this manner, the harmonious can constantly honestly promote that his service, meaning among his services, had the winner of this match.
Other sports providers give out selections on 900 numbers using a charge-per-call. They pad the bill by providing just 1 choice and telling you to call back in ten minutes for another choice –and yet another cost.
Other providers advertise”lock matches,” significance matches which can’t lose. How they can sell such games is beyond me. Whoever has watched sports for about a month understands that the difference between winning and losing against the spread can be infinitesimally small. From the NFL, a match will frequently be turned by one play or punishment call. The best anybody can do in handicapping will produce a negative that has a marginally better than 60 percent chance of covering the spread. This still means that almost four times in ten the match will drop –making any talk of a lock whole nonsense.
Some of the more laughable tout ads are those that are printed a month or more beforehand. These are often found in NFL betting schedules. The ads will claim that this service had winners in games which couldn’t happen to be played when the advertisements were composed!
In summary, the only touts you should consider using are those who talk about the long drag and realistic win percentages.