The Chiefs come up to take on the Denver Broncos.
Kansas City, with a record of 4-2 and an ATS record of 3-3, come after two consecutive losses. The Broncos on the flip side, are riding high and coming off two straight wins. The Broncos are ATS so far this year, and sit at 2-4. Denver linebacker Bradley Chubbs loss may have galvanized this team. Head trainer Vic Fangio finally has a grip on this Denver defense thats now rated the #7 shield in the league according to my defensive power evaluations (through SparkSports.ca).
In terms of the Chiefs, their shield has seen much better days. Kansas Citys defense has allowed an average of 406.2 yards per game and 24 points against per game. I have them ranked as the #19 shield in the league. The Chiefs defensive struggles are not their only problem too, the Chiefs offense has struggled to be anything more than vanilla in their last games. Kansas Citys defensive line has not been in a position to shield Patrick Mahomes correctly, and due to that – were seeing a great deal of back and off balance cries foot attempts. The Chiefs offense may have return down to earth after an whole year of being seen as the soccer equivalent to the Golden State Warriors. It appears today, they are now the Houston Rockets.
The consensus among people who set out NFL power ratings have the Chiefs as approximately 3pts greater compared to the Broncos in the road. Based on my statistics, my defensive ability ratings possess the Broncos as 9pts better compared to the Chiefs. I believe Denver can win this game. This line opened as Denver +4.5 and money has come in over the Broncos and has since moved it to Broncos +3. I wish I was able to get in on this +4.5 or even +4 or even +3.5, but I missed the ship. I jumped while I had the chance, thinking that money would continue to come in on Denver. That has not been the situation. As a reader, if youre able to hold off on the Broncos +3 and track that line movement. Id jump on Denver +3.5 when you see purchase back in about the Chiefs. Either way, I love the Broncos here.
Present Line: Denver +3 (-107 via Pinnacle)
Eyeing: Denver +3.5 (-110)
Purchase: Denver +3 (-110 via Bet365)
1pm EST, Sunday October 20th
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
The Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday see . The Texans come to an identical ATS record of 4-2, along with this individual with a 4-2 record. The Colts have been 3-2 using an ATS list of 3-1-1. Deshaun Watson has performed in his first six matches of the year. Watson has a completion percentage of 69.7%, projecting for 1644 yards, with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
The Colts Jacoby Brissett has played well, as the Colts continue to move in Andrew Lucks surprise retirement. Jacoby Brissett has a completion percentage of 64.7%, hes thrown for 1062 yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Even the Colts offensive line has become the highlight of the season, however – the defenses performance will be what makes or breaks them.
Houston QB Deshaun Watson has got the amount of sacks in the NFL since coming to the league, when hes sacked – when he stays on his feet – the Texans win. It is that easy. Shield Deshaun Watson, and also the Texans offensive line should hold the Colts defense . I expect that the Texans to win this game outright if they can do that. My defensive power ratings have the Texans as the 15 defense in the league, averaging 22.4 points a match against. Directly underneath the Texans is the Colts, who Ive since the 16 defense in the league; allowing 23.1 points per match against.
The general consensus, from the power ratings possess the Texans as about 1pt superior than the Colts. However, according to my numbers – the Colts must be around 2pts superior in the home than the Texans. This line started in Colts -2.5 and moved up to Texans -1, and its now swung back to Colts -1. This is only one of those plays where I am likely to have to side with the heads, and go against my amounts. I really like the Texans here. The make or break deciding factor for me will be that, Houston has the league greatest red zone scoring percent with 71.43%. The Texans lead the team in third down conversion percentage. As for the Colts, they rank 30th in red zone percentage and are ranked 27th in competition third down conversion percentage. I think that the Texans are going to be able to score if it matters when it comes down to this. Give me that the Texans.
Current Line: Texans +1 (-104 via Pinnacle)
Bet: Texans pk (-110 through Bet365)
1PM EST, Sunday October 20th
The 4-2 Minnesota Vikings will travel to carry on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings come into this one as the only team in the NFL to play six games without a direct change. Whichever team has scored has won the match, in every game they have played with this season. The secret to this game for the Vikings will be evident – to come out blazing and start this game quickly. Based on my amounts, Minnesota gets the #6 shield in the group. The Vikings have only allowed 15.5pts per match against and only 310 metres per game against. As for Detroit, I have them rated as the 18 defensive team in the NFL.
The Lions have allowed 23.6 pts per game against, also 413 yards per match against. The popular consensus electricity ratings put out this week have the Vikings as approximately 2.5pts better compared to Detroit on the road. My private power evaluations gets the gap between both of these teams. Detroit on the road has not Minnesota as about 5pts than me. This line started as a select em and has only moved into Detroit being +1.5 underdogs. Together with the Vikings simply giving -1.5pts, I believe there is a ton of value on Minnesota here. It will be on my card Sunday come.
Current Line: Minnesota -1 (-116 through Pinnacle)
Bet: Minnesota -1 (-110 via Bet365)